1 current division leader · 5 current wild card (seed shown)
Pick a winner to force a result, or leave it on Model. Percentages are the model's win probabilities.
Starting the scenario engine…
How this works
- Each night, a simple Bayesian model estimates every team's strength (plus home-field advantage) from this season's results. It then simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing team strengths from the model's uncertainty.
- Every simulated season is ranked with the NFL's division and wild-card tiebreakers, in your browser.
- Forcing a result does not change team strengths. It fixes that game's winner in every simulated season. Other games keep their simulated outcomes.
- Probabilities are Monte Carlo estimates, good to about ±0.5 percentage points.
- Differences from the official rules: tied and canceled games are left out of standings. Tiebreak steps that need points (and the coin toss) are replaced by a fixed random draw.
- "Proj. seed" is each team's median outcome over seeds 1–7 and Out, so it reads "Out" exactly when playoff odds are below 50%.